There is no way we're going to climb our way out of the current drought with one single storm system. But if the system is just right, you can most definitely put a solid dent in the drought. We'll be trading sunshine for clouds and rain as we head into the weekend. Those of you with outdoor plans will want to pay close attention as the forecast looks wet all the way into early next week...
TODAY: One last day to soak up the vitamin D. Sunshine rules the forecast with highs into the lower and middle 60s. Expect clouds to start to build from the west late tonight, but no impact whatsoever to the Montgomery tree lighting late this afternoon.
THIS WEEKEND: Skies will be much cloudier as you wake up Saturday morning. Showers will initially favor the northern third of Alabama but should gradually develop across our viewing area late and into Saturday night. Much of the day Saturday will NOT be wet for us with only scattered showers expected.
Sunday will be by far the wetter of the two weekend days with a good soaking rain anticipated. Models are advertising upwards of an inch of rain falling Sunday with more to come into early next week. The atmosphere is stable this weekend, so this is just a good old fashioned soaking rain without any threat for severe weather. Highs Saturday and Sunday shouldn't do much better than 60 degrees.
EARLY NEXT WEEK: A surface low will develop to our west and slide northwest of our region. The timing and strength of that feature will have implications on the potential for severe weather beginning late in the day Monday. The GFS remains rather aggressive in pulling a warm front well northward...which is debatable considering we'll be cool & soaked through the weekend.
Regardless, it appears a warm sector will try and nudge northward through the day Monday as the low approaches. How far northward that warm sector gets will dictate how things unfold, but if that warm front is able to penetrate into our viewing area, at least some threat for strong storms could emerge. We'll keep strong storm chances isolated to south Alabama for now, but a northward nudge would allow that threat to expand accordingly. The overall feel remains low-end, but isolated damaging wind gusts or a brief tornado would be in the cards if the evolution of things ends up just right.
Severe weather or not, additional heavy rain Monday will add to our overall totals. Wouldn't surprise me if many of us get 2-4" of rain between Saturday night and Tuesday morning. The weather quiets down late Tuesday, but a major cold push works southward late week, ushering in the coldest air of the Fall season. Lots going on!
WSFA First Alert Meteorologist Eric Snitil