FIRST ALERT: Much of west and southwest Alabama remains under a SLIGHT RISK for severe weather from now up until 8 this evening. The threat of severe weather is lower for central and eastern portions of Alabama. If severe storms do develop in our area our main concerns are heavy rain, damaging winds up to 60 MPH and quarter sized hail. An isolated brief tornado is possible as wind shear values are higher today than they were yesterday.
A line of showers and storms across Mississippi continue to track east towards Alabama. Out ahead of the main line we have already seen a few small scale storms blossom and produce localized heavy rain but nothing severe so far. Low level moisture was lacking this morning ahead of the main line due to our stormy weather yesterday. But throughout the day our southerly wind flow has aided moisture recovery. Surface based CAPE values range between 1500-2000 J/kg which is more than enough energy to produce a few strong to severe thunderstorms, mainly across west and southwest Alabama.
Above you'll see the HRRR model run showing an impressive amount of storm activity this evening. I will add the HRRR model on occasion tends to overestimate and we're likely to see a lesser amount of storms that what you see in this graphic. Below, is a shot of the RPM model data which handled yesterday's storms very well.
As you can see it is showing a far less impressive showing of storm activity compared to not only the HRRR model but also an earlier RPM model run included in Josh's weather blog post this morning. This model run was taken at 15Z which is 9:00 am central time.
So what does this all mean? It means we need to remain mindful and weather aware. The window for severe storm development is now until 8 pm, mainly for areas west of I-65. For the remainder of the afternoon will continue to see showers and storms move into the state from Mississippi. We could also see a few more storms develop ahead of the main line thanks to our weaker southwesterly wind flow bringing warm, moist air to the area. By sunset showers and storms should diminish as we go through our evening. Some may still be strong/severe but overall activity will be on a downward trend. Subsidence behind these storms will ensure a break in activity late tonight and through the overnight hours.
TOMORROW: We are likely in for another round of shower and storm activity tomorrow as a weak frontal boundary arrives to the area and eventually stalls over us by Sunday night. Southerly winds will continue to to keep us warm in the 80s tomorrow as Gulf moisture flows inland. Like with most days thunderstorm development will occur during the afternoon during peak heating hours. Some storms could be strong with gusty winds and small hail.
Vernon Turner, WSFA First Alert Meteorologist
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